Climate change is likely to lead to a significant increase in heat-related deaths across Europe

Climate change is likely to lead to a significant increase in heat-related deaths across Europe

Climate action could prevent 70% of the 2.3 million projected heat-related deaths in European cities by 2099

In a recently published study inNatural medicinePresentResearchers predict that climate change is likely to lead to a sharp increase in heat-related mortality across Europe by the end of this century.

How climate change affects mortality

Heat and cold stress are important health risk factors that are associated with significant mortality across Europe, particularly among people with pre-existing health conditions such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes and obesity. Existing evidence suggests that cold-related mortality is approximately 10-fold higher in Europe

Recent studies have reported that temperature-related mortality in Europe may decrease with climate change. However, growing populations and urbanization increase exposure to high temperatures, which subsequently increases the risk of heat-related mortality.

The balance between increased heat-related mortality and decreased cold-related mortality is a key determinant of the net effect of climate change, which can be influenced by multiple factors, including geographic locations, population-level adaptive capacity, demographic characteristics, and socioeconomic status. In the current study, researchers provide a comprehensive assessment of the net effect of climate change on temperature-related mortality in 854 European cities under various climate, demographic and adaptation scenarios.

Important observations

The current study estimates that without thermal adaptation, climate change could lead to over 2.3 million additional temperature-related deaths in 854 European cities by 2099 if strong policies to reduce carbon emissions are not implemented. However, 70% of these deaths were preventable through rapid implementation of mitigation measures.

Three common Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) conditions, including SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-7.0, were included in the analysis to produce these projections. SSP1-2.6 corresponds to a sustainable world in which global warming barely exceeds 1.5 °C at its peak, while SSP2-4.5 corresponds to a world condition in which global warming remains below 3 °C. SSP3-7.0 corresponds to a world condition where low priority is given to sustainability and environmental issues, resulting in global warming near or above 4°C.

The net death toll from climate change in Europe may increase by 50% between 2015 and 2099 under SSP3-7.0, the lowest mitigation and adaptation conditions. This death burden can be reduced by at least two-thirds under the more stringent SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 conditions, which give high priority to reducing carbon emissions.

In the absence of strong mitigation strategies, the estimated increase in temperature-related mortality can only be prevented through significant adaptation to heat, especially in the most vulnerable areas such as the Mediterranean region, Central Europe and the Balkans.

Our results highlight the urgent need to aggressively pursue both climate change mitigation and adaptation to increased heat. This is particularly crucial in the Mediterranean area, where the consequences of doing nothing could be dire. However, by taking a more sustainable path, we could avoid millions of deaths before the end of the century. “

Ten European cities are expected to experience the highest temperature-related deaths by 2099. These cities include Barcelona, ​​​​Madrid and Valencia in Spain, Rome, Naples, Genoa and Milan in Italy, Athens, Greece, Marseille, France and Bucharest. Romania.

Due to their larger populations, the highest number of temperature-related deaths are likely to occur in densely populated Mediterranean cities. However, several smaller cities in Malta, Spain and Italy are also predicted to experience high burdens of temperature-related deaths.

The impact of climate change on mortality was expected to be less severe in cities outside the Mediterranean region. Other European capitals such as Paris were expected to see smaller but significant increases in cumulative cold and heat deaths.

In comparison, a net reduction in temperature-related deaths is likely in most cities in the British Isles and Scandinavian countries. However, this reduction would be outweighed by the 2.3 million additional deaths across Europe.

These findings debunk proposed theories of “beneficial” impacts of climate change, which are often proposed in opposition to vital mitigation policies that should be implemented as soon as possible. “

Investigate significance

The current study provides projections of temperature-related mortality rates that may affect several European cities without robust mitigation policies and appropriate heat adaptation strategies. Regional differences in temperature-related mortality have also been reported, indicating a small net decline in mortality rates in northern European countries, but high vulnerability in the Mediterranean and Eastern European areas.

Importantly, daily average temperatures were used to create these projections and, as a result, they did not take into account specific weather events such as extreme nighttime temperatures and humidity conditions, which can alter estimated death tolls.

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