Polls show that abortion bans motivate midterm voters

Polls show that abortion bans motivate midterm voters

Half of voters say the Supreme Court's decision to strike down the constitutional right to abortion has made them more motivated to vote in next month's midterm elections. Enthusiasm is growing particularly among Democrats and people who live in states with abortion bans, according to a new KFF poll.

The Survey also revealed that most voters, whether Democrats or Republicans, do not believe that abortions in cases of rape or incest should be banned, nor do they support laws that impose criminal penalties on abortion providers and women who have abortions.

The results, collected in late September as part of KFF's regular poll of public opinion on health issues, show that even majorities of Republican voters oppose some of the laws that strictly restrict access to abortion, including for those who have been raped, in effect in Republican-led states like Texas and Missouri. However, states with such strict standards have so far approved abortions to save a mother's life.

With Democrats currently in control of the House and Senate by narrow margins and several close races underway, control of Congress could hinge on voter turnout. And while voters are less likely to select candidates based on a single issue, an important issue can make them more likely to vote.

The KFF poll showed that neither party has a significant “motivation advantage”: More than half of Democratic and Republican voters said they would vote more in this election than in previous elections. However, voters who identified themselves as independents said they were less inclined to vote than in previous elections.

The difference lay in their reasons. Of voters who said they were more motivated, reproductive rights was the top issue for Democrats, while the top issue for Republicans was the economy and inflation. Independents were equally divided between abortion and economics. Nearly 7 in 10 Democrats said they were motivated by the court's decision, compared with 49% of independents and 32% of Republicans.

Among women of childbearing age, 44% said they were more motivated to vote this year, with nearly 6 in 10 attributing their feelings to the court's decision and more than 5 in 10 pointing to abortion laws in their home state.

51% of voters living in states with a total abortion ban said their state's laws made them more motivated to vote, suggesting the potential for higher Democratic turnout in several Republican states.

The poll found that 76% of all voters are voting for candidates who support abortion access because of the court's decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.

The results also showed a striking consensus: More than 8 in 10 voters nationally oppose laws that ban abortion in cases of rape or incest — as do more than 8 in 10 voters who live in states with the strictest abortion bans, and more than 8 in 10 voters live in states with abortion protections.

While 70% of Republican voters supported the court's decision, a majority of Republicans also said they oppose laws that ban abortion in all cases or that make obtaining or performing an abortion a crime.

Seven out of ten Republican voters oppose a ban on abortion in cases of rape or incest. About 64% of Republicans oppose laws that make it a crime for a woman to perform an abortion, while 51% oppose laws that make it a crime for a doctor to perform an abortion.

A third of Republicans oppose banning abortion once fetal cardiac activity is detected, typically about six weeks after a woman's last menstrual cycle — a marker that has become the basis for six-week abortion bans in several states.

The KFF poll also asked voters about changes to Medicare under the Inflation Reduction Act, a landmark law passed by the Democratic-controlled Congress in August. About a third or fewer of Americans are aware of the law's health care provisions, which include the expansion of financial subsidies for those who purchase health insurance on the Affordable Care Act marketplaces, the cap on out-of-pocket costs for prescription drugs for Medicare recipients, the cap on insulin costs, and the possibility that the federal government will increase the price of some prescription drugs for those on Medicare.

The poll found that Americans ages 65 and older, who stand to benefit the most as primary beneficiaries of Medicare, are more likely to vote for candidates who support the health care cost law changes.

The online and telephone survey was conducted September 15-26 with a sample of 1,534 adults. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points for the entire sample, but the sampling error may be higher for subgroups.

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