Study reveals trends and future projections of cancer mortality in China

Study reveals trends and future projections of cancer mortality in China

Cancer remains the second leading cause of death in China, accounting for nearly a quarter of all deaths nationwide. Rapid socioeconomic changes, environmental stresses, and an aging population have increased the burden of cancer across the country. Although national cancer prevention and early detection programs have improved survival rates, regional inequalities persist. Rural residents have limited access to medical care and lower screening coverage compared to urban populations. At the same time, lifestyle-related risk factors such as smoking, alcohol consumption and obesity continue to increase. Because of these challenges, a comprehensive analysis of long-term cancer mortality trends and future projections was required to support national prevention strategies.

A research team from the Cancer Hospital, the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and the Peking Union Medical College has published new findings (DOI: 10.20892/j.issn.2095-3941.2025.0158).Cancer biology and medicinewhich shows national cancer mortality trends from 2013 to 2021 and projections through 2030. The study draws on 2.37 billion person-years of data from the China Causes of Death Surveillance System and reports a significant overall decline in cancer mortality, but warns that population aging and regional differences will continue to drive increases in absolute cancer deaths nationwide.

Researchers analyzed mortality data from 605 surveillance sites in 31 provinces, representing 24% of China's population. Using age-period cohort models, they calculated age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) and projected trends through 2030. Between 2013 and 2021, total ASMRs for all cancers declined by 2.3% annually, driven by significant declines in esophageal cancer (-4.8%), stomach cancer (-4.5%), and liver cancer (-2.7%). However, mortality increased for pancreatic cancer (+2.0%) and prostate cancer (+3.4%). Urban areas achieved faster reductions (-3.0% per year) than rural areas (-2.0%), highlighting persistent inequalities. A decomposition analysis found that population aging contributed 20-50% to the increase in various cancer deaths. By 2030, lung cancer will continue to be the leading cause of cancer death in both sexes, followed by liver, colon, stomach and esophageal cancer in men and colon, liver, stomach and breast cancer in women. The team estimates that despite continued improvements in mortality rates, 2.4 million people will die from cancer in 2030, underscoring the twin challenges of an aging society and unequal access to healthcare.

China has made remarkable progress in reducing cancer mortality through nationwide screening and risk control programs. However, the demographic shift towards an older population means that absolute cancer deaths will continue to increase. We need to focus on early detection and equitable access to cancer treatment, especially in rural areas. Integrating prevention and control measures into broader public health and aging policies will be critical to sustaining progress and reducing the urban-rural divide.”

Dr. Xiaoqiu Dai, corresponding author, National Cancer Center

The study provides a critical evidence base for policy decisions aimed at reducing China's future cancer burden. Strengthening early detection in rural areas, promoting HPV and HBV vaccinations, and promoting healthier lifestyles could significantly reduce mortality in high-risk populations. Additionally, expanding cancer control to include rural revitalization strategies can ensure that prevention and treatment reach underserved areas. The researchers suggest that coordinated national efforts to address environmental, behavioral and demographic factors could not only reduce cancer mortality but also serve as a model for other developing countries facing similar age-related health changes.

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