Rising food prices can lead to stunted growth in children

Rising food prices can lead to stunted growth in children

When food prices skyrocket during an economic crisis, urban populations and people with low levels of education are particularly affected. This can have lifelong negative health consequences – such as stunted growth in children. A research team from the University of Bonn has now demonstrated such long-term effects using the example of the “Asian financial crisis” in the 1990s. At that time, turmoil in financial markets led to a dramatic increase in the price of rice, Indonesia's most important staple food, which left a measurable mark on children's development. The study was published in the journal “Global Food Security”.

For their study, researchers from the Center for Development Research (ZEF) at the University of Bonn evaluated the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS), which has been tracking households for many years. They used regional differences in rice price inflation between 1997 and 2000 and linked these to people's body measurements during childhood and later as young adults.

We see that a massive price shock not only has a short-term impact, but can also have a long-term impact on children's physical development. The crisis-related price increase increased chronic malnutrition and was associated with a 3.5 percentage point increase in child stunting. Severely affected children not only remain smaller than their unaffected peers later in life, they are also significantly more susceptible to obesity.”

Elza S. Elmira, lead author of the study

This connection surprised the researchers. Elmira sees a possible explanation: "In times of crisis, families save less on calories than on more expensive, nutrient-dense foods. This leads to a 'hidden deficiency' of important micronutrients that slows height growth without necessarily reducing body weight to the same extent." The study monitored the same children until 2014, when they were between 17 and 23 years old. For the group aged between three and five during the crisis, there were significant correlations with body mass index (BMI) and the likelihood of obesity.

Protecting children at sensitive stages of development

“Deprivation in early childhood can have lifelong effects – although growth disorders are easier to measure, they are often associated with impaired intellectual development and an increased risk of obesity and chronic diseases,” says Prof. Dr. Matin Qaim, co-author of the study. "In the same crisis, both malnutrition and obesity can increase. This underlines the importance of a nutrition-sensitive crisis policy: it must specifically protect children in sensitive stages of development. If nutrition policy is only concerned with calories, it may miss the real problem." The agricultural economist is a member of the transdisciplinary research area “Sustainable Futures” at the University of Bonn and the Cluster of Excellence “PhenoRob – Robotics and Phenotyping for Sustainable Crop Production”.

Stronger impact in cities and among people with lower levels of education

The impact is particularly pronounced in urban areas, where households are more dependent on purchasing food, while families in rural areas sometimes grow their own rice. Educational background also plays a role: children of mothers with a low level of education are significantly more affected than children of better-educated mothers. “The results suggest that crisis aid should not be based solely on poverty levels,” emphasize Elmira and Qaim. “Especially in cities and places with little knowledge about balanced nutrition, a price shock can deteriorate the quality of nutrition to such an extent that the consequences are long-term and irreversible.”

Why this is relevant today

The Bonn researchers point out that crop, income and price shocks are increasing worldwide - due to conflicts, pandemics and extreme weather events. The analysis from Indonesia thus provides empirical evidence of how economic turbulence can lead to long-term health risks via food prices.

The results of this study are interpreted as statistical correlations; Over longer periods of time, not all potentially disruptive influences can be ruled out with certainty.

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