Global warming is approaching the 1.5°C threshold, posing health risks worldwide

Global warming is approaching the 1.5°C threshold, posing health risks worldwide

With temperatures hitting record highs in 2023, climate-focused health crises are rising, endangering lives and putting immense pressure on global health systems.

The 2015 Paris Agreement aimed to protect the world from the serious health and economic impacts of rapid global warming by limiting temperature rises to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. However, in 2023, Earth's surface temperature reached 1.45 °C above this baseline. A recent article in Lancet reviewed the costs of this warming.

The authors, part of the Lancet Countdown – a collaborative initiative that tracks climate and health trends around the world – provide an annual analysis of these impacts from global to national levels.

Human costs of climate change

In the most recent year of data, 10 of 15 climate-related health indicators showed record changes. For example, heat-related deaths among those over 65 rose 167% compared to the 1990s—significantly higher than the expected 65% increase in the absence of global warming.

Heat exposure, the risk of heat stress, increased by 27.7% compared to the 1990s and sleep loss due to heat increased by 6% compared to 1986 to 2005.

Extreme weather events had widespread impacts, with record rainfall, floods, epidemics and water contamination affecting 61% of Earth's land area, while drought affected 48% for one or more months. Food insecurity affected by drought and heatwaves affected 150 million more people in 2022 than in previous years.

Additionally, 31% more people were exposed to hazardous air quality due to increased dust storms. Rising temperatures and shifting rainfall patterns also accelerated the spread of diseases such as dengue, malaria, West Nile virus and cholera to new regions.

Economic loss due to climate change

Climate-related economic losses increased by 23% from 2013 to 2023. In wealthier countries, about 61% of these losses were covered by insurance, while in lower income countries most losses were uninsured, hitting local communities hardest.

Work hours lost due to climate impacts reached a record 512 billion in 2023, worth around $835 billion. This loss represents 7.6% and 4.4% of GDP in medium and low developing countries, further straining already vulnerable communities. Every fraction of a degree in global warming combines these effects with interconnected and cascading health impacts.

However, only 68% of countries had fully implemented emergency responsibility, and only 11% of these were high-income nations. Early warning systems for heat-related illnesses were available in 35% of countries, but only 10% had similar mental health impacts, citing lack of funding as a primary barrier.

World -Off goal to achieve Paris goals

Despite the targets set by the Paris agreement, emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) from fossil fuels reached record highs in 2023 instead of decreasing. Emissions are expected to exceed targets by 189% by 2040, exceeding the projected increase of 173% in 2023.

Regarding the future of fossil fuels, 11.8 million people were underlined in 2022, and coal-fired power plants were deployed with $164.5 billion, with the industry still growing. Healthcare system emissions have also increased by 36% since 2016.

Renewable energy production remains insufficient, with only 2.3% in the poorest countries meeting energy needs compared to 11.6% in wealthier nations. In low-income regions, biomass burning provides 92% of energy needs. Combined with fossil fuel consumption, which accounted for 67% of greenhouse gas emissions in 2022, this contributed to 3.33 million deaths from outdoor fine particulate air pollution in 2021 and 2.3 million deaths from indoor pollution due to contaminated fuels. A decline in coal consumption in wealthier countries reduced deaths from this cause by 7%.

Deforestation continues rapidly, with 182 million hectares lost from 2016 to 2022, shrinking one of the world's most important carbon sinks. Wealthy countries such as Russia, the US and Canada accounted for 64 million hectares of this loss, while developing countries contributed 42 million hectares.

Agricultural greenhouse gas emissions rose 2.9%, linked to rising red meat and dairy consumption, contributing to 11.2 million diet-related deaths in 2021. Half of global Co₂ emissions come from just two countries, China and the USA.

Climate adaptation and mitigation efforts remain underfunded while profit-driven fossil fuel companies continue to expand production. This growth is absorbing significant resources, including a record $1.4 trillion in global fossil fuel subsidies to stabilize fuel prices during the energy crisis.

Positive trends

Clean Energy Investment rose 10% in 2023 and 73% higher than 10%. Fossil fuel investments, but mainly (82.6%) in China and developed countries.

By 2023, 50 countries had assessed health and climate vulnerabilities and 43 had a national health adaptation plan. Climate and health education has been provided in 70% of public health facilities worldwide. Electricity contributed a record 10.5% of clean renewable energy, and renewable energy employment increased 35.6% from 2016-2022.

Current opportunities for climate change action

“The countries that have contributed the least to rising temperatures. “”

The latest report describes seven actionable options based on 11 health-focused recommendations from the 2023 findings. It urges that all international agreements related to the Paris Agreement integrate health into climate data, including recognition of the health impacts and costs of climate change and the health benefits of adaptation and mitigation.

Policies that gradually move economies away from dependence on fossil fuels, such as B. Subsidies, distract, are crucial. Redirected spending could support climate adaptation and mitigation through clean energy investment, risk management, and targeted subsidies or transfers to support the most vulnerable countries and communities.

The upcoming Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in 2025, as well as the Financial Loss and Damage Fund and the new collective quantified target for climate finance identified at COP29, should prioritize health impacts. Additionally, the valuation metrics for conditioned losses and gains must be health-focused.

Rather than continued investments in fossil fuels that must eventually be phased out, the transition to renewable energy with a focus on health outcomes must accelerate, as highlighted by the current transition work program.

Public health initiatives that reduce greenhouse gas emissions, limit pollution and promote healthy diets should be integrated into climate policy. Incorporating traditional indigenous wisdom is also essential as it often provides valuable insight into sustainable health and environmental practices.

For these strategies to be effective, international health leaders must embrace the integration of health into climate action frameworks.

Diploma

Given the low-serious intent to prevent the catastrophic consequences of climate change on human health and survival, health professionals at all levels must actively engage with decision-makers to shift policies away from dangerous activities toward those that support health and resilience.

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