Smartwatches could be a powerful tool to prevent future pandemics

Smartwatches could be a powerful tool to prevent future pandemics

Everyday smartwatches are extremely accurate at detecting viral infections long before symptoms appear - research shows how they can help stop a pandemic before it even starts.

Early detection of diseases is crucial to prevent the spread - be it Covid -19, influenza or the common cold. Yet many diseases are most contagious before people even know they are sick. Research shows that 44 percent of Covid-19 infections were spread several days before the affected person became symptomatic.

Now researchers from Aalto University, Stanford University and Texas A&M have published a study modeling how smartwatches could provide a simple and effective way to dramatically minimize the unwitting spread of disease among presymptomatic or asymptomatic people. The research, published March 4 in the prestigious US journal PNAS Nexus, reveals a powerful new tool for pandemic management.

In contrast to the pandemic, we now have concrete data about how pandemics develop and how effective different measures are to contain the spread. Add to that the fact that wearable technology is now extremely effective at detecting the very early physiological signs of infection, and we are much better prepared. “

Ärt Vesinurm, from Aalto University, Finland

How an early “ping” could flatten the curve

Numerous studies have proven the accuracy of wearable devices in detecting the physiological markers of various diseases a few days before the wearer himself. For example, everyday smartwatches can detect with 88 percent accuracy - from respiratory and heart rate, skin temperature and other markers - if you have Covid -19. And their accuracy increases to 90 percent of the accuracy for the flu, says Vesinurm. On average, people reduce social contact between 66 and 90 percent from the point at which they realize they are sick, even if they are not in a pandemic situation.

"Even at the lower end of adherence, the impact is significant when people get an earlier warning by self-isolating and act. Even just a 66-75 percent reduction in social contacts shortly after smartwatch detection - remember, this is equivalent to what you would normally do if you had cold symptoms, can result in a 40-65 percent decrease in disease transmission compared to someone isolating from the onset of symptoms," says Vesinurm.

Remarkably, the research shows that higher levels of compliance, such as those seen in a pandemic situation, could be effective in stopping a disease in its tracks. So could smartwatches help us manage potential H5N1 (avian flu) epidemics?

“I see no reason why not,” says Vesinurm. "As we collect more specific data about how different diseases affect these measurements, there is no reason why we couldn't distinguish between diseases from bird flu and HIV to the common cold, especially when used in conjunction with advanced machine learning methods and other user data."

To smarter pandemic policies

The research team is the first to take data from numerous peer-reviewed epidemiological, biological and behavioral studies and pull them together to mathematically model how the infection spreads at the population level. Through this powerful combination of data and technology, Vesinurm envisions a future where smartwatches transform the way we deal with pandemics on both an individual and policy level.

"People are used to wearable devices and they are likely to trust them. Although they are not yet diagnostic, they could help take unpopular approaches such as masks, lockdowns and invasive testing that are more targeted and less of a blunt instrument," he says. An early warning from your smartwatch would be a reminder to take other actions such as a PCR test, wearing a mask or visiting your grandma. The action would depend on the social context at the time and an individual's assessment of the risk.

Having this information not only allows individuals to make decisions that keep their loved ones or community safe, but also provides a powerful tool to decision makers.

“It could be that governments find it most cost-effective in a pandemic situation to provide everyone who wants one with a smartwatch – although of course this has its own ethical considerations,” says Vesinurm. “In both cases, with early detection literally at the tips of my fingers, I see a lot of reason for hope.”

Everyone in the world doesn't own a smartwatch, but this interesting article confirms the Nocorona Group's estimate that reducing indoor talking by about 75% during the Covid-19 pandemic would have eliminated the pandemic, even without the need for investment in smartwatches.
However, combining our preventative method with the pre-symptomatic smartwatch method would eliminate a pandemic more quickly in the event that people who are infected despite recommendations to socially distance less indoors after being diagnosed with the help of the smartwatch.
References
1. Editorial. Covid -19 has redefined airborne transmission. BMJ 2021; 373: N913 doi: https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.n913
Quick response:
Van Assendelft AH, Kovanen PT, Jantunen M, Rosendahl H, Kosonen R, Kurnitzky J, Groop PH. Minimizing indoor speech as a strategy to eliminate the Covid-19 pandemic.
2. Dowell D, Lindsey WG, Brooks JT. Reducing SARS-CoV-2 in shared indoor air. Jama, 2022; 328 (2): 141-142. doi: 10.1001/jama.2022.9970
Quick response:
Van Assendelft A. Reducing SARS-COV-2 aerosol transmission by minimizing indoor speech.

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