Breast Cancer Cases and Deaths Set to Rise by 2050 - Are We Prepared?

Breast Cancer Cases and Deaths Set to Rise by 2050 - Are We Prepared?

A sharp increase in breast cancer is predicted by 2050 – health systems ready? A groundbreaking study reveals the alarming disparities in diagnosis, treatment and survival rates worldwide.

Breast cancer is diagnosed in four women worldwide every minute and, according to 2022 estimates, one woman will die every minute. In a study recently published in the journalNatural medicineAn international team of oncologists and health researchers provided a comprehensive look at the current and future burden of breast cancer worldwide, highlighting incidence and mortality rates and underscoring the urgent need for improved prevention, early detection and treatment strategies.

Breast cancer

The breast cancer mortality-to-incidence ratio is up to four times higher in low HDI countries - 46% of women under the age of 50 diagnosed in these regions die, compared to just 11% in very high HDI countries.

Breast cancer remains the most commonly diagnosed cancer in women and a leading cause of global mortality. While high-income countries have seen improvements in survival due to early detection and better treatment, lower-income regions continue to struggle with delayed diagnoses and limited access to healthcare.

The incidence of breast cancer is influenced by factors such as reproductive history, lifestyle choices and genetics. Developed countries report higher rates due to longer life expectancy and lifestyle changes. However, low- and middle-income countries face disproportionately high mortality rates due to late-stage diagnosis, inadequate screening programs, and a lack of trained medical professionals.

While efforts such as the World Health Organization's (WHO) Global Breast Cancer Initiative (GBCI) aim to reduce mortality through early detection and effective treatment, only seven countries, including Belgium and Denmark, have met the initiative's goal of reducing breast cancer mortality by 2.5% per year.

Many other nations are making progress but falling short of this benchmark. This study examined current trends and predicted future burdens associated with breast cancer, highlighting the need for global action to close the gap in breast cancer outcomes.

The current study

Incidence is rising fastest among younger women in high-income nations - with Japan, South Korea and Bahrain seeing some of the steepest increases.

In the present study, researchers analyzed breast cancer incidence and mortality in 185 countries using data from the International Agency for Research on Cancer's Global Cancer Observatory (IARC). They examined the trends using historical data between 2008 and 2017, taking into account variables such as Human Development Index (HDI), age distribution and regional differences.

To estimate the current (2022) and future (2050) burden, the study applied age-specific incidence and mortality rates from 2022 to projected population growth. Researchers also assessed the 185 countries' progress toward the WHO goal of reducing breast cancer-related mortality by 2.5% annually.

The study used statistical methods to assess incidence and mortality trends, including locally weighted regression models and estimated annual percentage changes. The team also calculated mortality-to-incidence ratios as a proxy for healthcare accessibility, disease severity and systemic barriers to treatment.

In addition, risk factors such as obesity (associated with 8-28% of breast cancer cases), alcohol consumption (4-16%) and hormonal influences were examined to highlight the importance of prevention. The study also aimed to provide critical insights into socioeconomic factors that influence breast cancer outcomes and to use this information to guide global cancer control policies.

Global trends in breast cancer

Australia and New Zealand have the highest breast cancer incidence rate in the world, with 100.3 cases per 100,000 women - more than three times higher than South Central Asia (26.7 per 100,000).

The researchers observed that breast cancer remains the most commonly diagnosed cancer in women, with an estimated 2.3 million new cases and approximately 670,000 mortalities in 2022. While high-income countries continue to struggle with high mortality rates reflecting ambiguities in healthcare access due to improved detection and treatment, low- and middle-income countries continue to struggle with high mortality rates.

Additionally, future projections showed a concerning increase, with an estimated 3.2 million new cases and over 1.1 million deaths expected by 2050. The study also found that mortality rates are declining in 29 very high HDI countries, but in seven countries, including several in Africa, Latin America and Asia. Australia, along with Britain, Sweden and the Netherlands, is among the countries facing a 2.5% annual decline in mortality, with a decline of 2.1% per year.

However, the highest incidence rates of breast cancer were observed in Australia and New Zealand, where age-standardized rates reached 100.3 cases per 100,000 women. This reflects both longer life expectancy and widespread screening programs that detect more cases in early stages. In contrast, South Central Asia had the lowest incidence rates of 26.7 per 100,000.

Increasing incidence rates among younger women under 50 years of age have also been noted, particularly in high-income countries, indicating changes in risk factors such as lifestyle and reproductive behavior changes. In particular, the incidence of breast cancer among younger women is increasing exclusively in nine countries, including Japan, South Korea and Bahrain.

Seven countries, including Belgium and Denmark, are successfully reducing breast cancer mortality by 2.5% per year - meeting the goal of the WHO Global Breast Cancer Initiative.

Additionally, the study found that low HDI countries face disproportionately higher incidence mortality, meaning more women diagnosed with breast cancer in these regions die from the disease compared to their counterparts in higher-income countries. This disparity has largely been attributed to late-stage diagnoses, financial barriers to treatment and a shortage of cancer specialists and radiotherapy facilities.

Additionally, the researchers noted that economic and demographic transitions will play a role in the future burden of breast cancer. Rapid urbanization, aging populations, and shifting lifestyle factors may contribute to increasing incidence, particularly in developing regions. Addressing these challenges requires global efforts to improve health care infrastructure, expand access to clinical breast examinations as a cost-effective alternative to mammography in low-resource settings, promote risk reduction behaviors, and improve access to timely and effective care.

Limitations of the study included potential inaccuracies in data collection, particularly in low- and middle-income countries with incomplete cancer registries. In addition, the projections were based on current trends and may underestimate future exposure if risk factors continue to increase.

Conclusions

Overall, the results highlighted the growing global burden of breast cancer and the stark inequalities in survival between high and low income nations. The study showed that without urgent intervention, mortality rates will continue to rise, particularly in resource-limited settings. Strengthening early detection of breast cancer, increasing access to treatment, and addressing preventable risk factors are critical steps toward reducing this growing crisis. The researchers highlighted that for all countries meeting the 2.5% annual mortality target, almost 560,000 lives could be saved by 2050.

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