Study highlights importance of diagnostic testing in pandemic response

Study highlights importance of diagnostic testing in pandemic response

The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the importance of testing in disease preparedness and response, and new research from the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory (APL) and a team of collaborators underscores this principle.

Published in the January 2 issueThe Lancet Public HealthThe research included simulations and analysis suggesting that public-private partnerships to develop, manufacture and distribute COVID-19 diagnostic tests have saved an estimated 1.4 million lives and prevented approximately 7 million patient hospitalizations during the pandemic in the United States.

APL, based in Laurel, Maryland, collaborated on the study with the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR), the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and consultants from MITER Corporation.

The analysis found that early development, production and distribution of tests significantly reduced the number of severe COVID-19 illnesses. Through modeling and simulation, we have shown how national coordination can effectively use resources and capabilities.”

Gary Lin, computational epidemiologist at APL and co-author of the study

APL researchers developed a digital twin prototype –; a virtual simulation environment –; to model the test and diagnostic supply chain. The tool was used to simulate baseline scenarios and assess the impact of possible pandemic interventions.

“The digital twin helps us quantitatively understand the impact and consequences of disruptions and changing infection rates on testing availability,” said Elizabeth Currier, digital twin project manager at APL. “It can also assess the impact of policies and investments and be used in planning and assessing supply needs to help respond and ensure a secure supply chain for future medical crises.”

The prototype model integrated various data sources, including manufacturing, retail and government inventory information, as well as wastewater and stationary data, allowing the team to evaluate complex scenarios. It simulated forecasts for infectious disease cases to reflect demand for tests, production of tests, and supply and distribution logistics.

Between January 2020 and December 2022, government efforts resulted in more than 6.7 billion COVID-19 tests in the United States. This included laboratory testing, point-of-care testing and over-the-counter testing, with more than 2.7 billion tests performed in U.S. laboratories, health care facilities or at home.

“The results highlight the importance of robust and rapid test development, production and distribution to address future threats to public health,” Currier said. “The insights gained from integrating data go beyond responding to COVID-19: they prepare us for future pandemics with a scalable framework for effectively allocating resources.”

APL's digital twin modeling has since expanded to monitor nationwide testing for COVID-19, influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and other public health threats as part of an all-hazards approach.

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